Methodology
Futures Studies Methods Introduction
This paper discusses various methods used in futures studies and foresight exercises. It aims to provide background knowledge to other techniques available, which will in turn aid the quality assessment futures/foresight work. It is important to note that in practice, many methods are used in a particular exercise to minimise biases. Overview of Methods Futures studies are a multi-disciplinary field, and are concerned with a wide range ofviews about possible, probably and preferable futures. McHale and McHale (1975) in their international survey of futurists identified more than 17 methodological approaches, often used in conjunction with each other. These include extrapolation techniques using times series data, models, brainstorming, scenarios writing, simulation, historical analogy, Delphi techniques, cross-impact analysis, causal modeling, relevance trees, gaming and contextual mapping. In terms of national foresight exercises, 6 common methods are identified: projection, relevance tree, morphology, critical technologies, Delphi, and Scenario (Nagel and Wellington, 2000). There are various ways to categorise methods of futures studies. For example: views of future (pattern analysts, intuitors etc.), time horizon (short term vs. long term outlook), qualitative vs. quantitative, extrapolative vs. normative etc. For the purpose of this paper selected methods are listed in the order of most commonly used ones to least commonly used ones for the statements in the Informan framework. They are as follows: Most commonly used methods in Informan
• Panel of Experts
• Pattern Analysis And Projection
• Delphi Surveys
Other methods in Informan
• Consultation
• Scenarios Writing
• Goals Analysis
• Pattern Analysis
• Backcasting Other important futures methods outside Informan
• Modelling
• Simulations and Games
• Brainstorming
• Relevance Tree
• Critical Technologies
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• Morphology Analysis
• Content Analysis
• Patent Analysis
• Visualisation
• Science Fiction
Descriptions of Selected Methods
Most Commonly Used Methods In Informan
• Panel of Experts
Future views are based on judgements from a representative group of experts, considering information that they believe will influence subject of interest and combine their conclusions into futures knowledge. No formal model is used and no two experts are likely to consider the same information in the same way, but it has provided good futures insights in many situations. Empirical evidence and theoretical arguments suggest that between 5-20 experts should be used (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). However, in situations involving exponential growth, judgemental forecasts may be inappropriate.
• Delphi Surveys
The Delphi method can be thought of simply as a structured brainstorming technique, and is frequently used in national Foresight exercises and consists of interrogations of experts by means of successive iterations of a given questionnaire. Each iteration constitutes a ‘round’ and is the medium for the experts to state their views. The outcome of each round of opinion gathering is then analysed in a qualitative and quantitative manner, and significant dissenters from the developing consensus are required to explain their continuing reasons for dissent. The number of rounds required in any given studies depends on the level of consensus that the survey aims to achieve. The prime assumption of the conventional Delphi technique is that consensus among a group of respondents is likely to be a better guide than anyone individual opinion. However, on the basis of the above it is crucial that the experts are in a position to express reasoned and well-founded views on issues as far reaching as the intended time horizon. In practice, the main advantage of the method is the networking aspect of experts. Disadvantages include resource-intensiveness and sensitivity to the choice ofexperts and questions used.
• Projection
The objective is to discover a pattern in the historical data and then extrapolate the pattern into the future: the forecast is based solely on the past values of the variable and/or on past forecast errors. Common examples of projection include:
o Time series extrapolation e.g. demographics
o Technology trend analysis, which is based on the observation that advances in technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement process. The technique uses early improvement data to establish the rate ofprogress and extrapolates that rate to project the level of progress at various times in the future. Results produced by this technique are typically highly quantitative. In practice, this technique is typically used to forecast developments such as the speed of operation, level of performance, cost reduction, improved quality, and operating efficiency.
In general, projection should be used when:
1) Past information about the variable of concern is available
2) The information can be quantified
3) Reasonable assumption can be made that the pattern if the past will continue into the future
Other Methods In Informan
• Consultation
The consultation approach typically involves a series of one-on-one interviews. The Internet is opening up new possibilities for on-line, enabling increased levels of participation via remote access. This enables groups to achieve consensus faster. The advantages are:
o Very flexible and good for “getting a feel” of an issue
o Can involve many people, making it attractive for dissemination of Foresight outputs
o Quick to set up, this leading to fast results
However, the lack of embedded structure in the approach may make the results harder to interpret. Furthermore, the interviews may be time consuming.
• Goals Analysis
It provides a framework to take into account the motivations of the various stakeholders within their environment. It involves the following steps
1) Identify those people and organizations that have a stake in particular decisions, projects and programs
2) Analyse the importance that each individual or group assign to key issues
3) Analyse the relative influence that they may have in developments
4) Develop tactics/action plans in the light of above analysis
The technique is particularly appropriate in situations where there are key players within an industry or field of investigation who can shape to some extent the environment in which they operate
The fact that the technique is most often used to test the validity of forecasts that might be impacted by unexpected opposition or support, strongly back-up the argument made above.
• Scenarios Writing
This method consists of organising information and future possibilities into alternative visions of the future. It is especially useful to aid the comprehension of events that seem to contain a mixture of unrelated information. Scenario methods can be extrapolative or normative depending on the starting point. A normative study will start by determining future goals and objectives, then or backwards to see if and how they can be achieved. An extrapolative study will be based on the assumption that existing trends in the relevant variables will continue. The scenarios themselves must be internally consistent pictures of future possibilities and will be composed of a mixture of quantifiable and non-quantifiable components arranged as alternative logical strings of events. A cross-impact analysis should be performed first to pick out the inter-relations between the assumptions in order to ensure consistency within each scenario. The number of scenarios is normally limited to 2 or 3. The main advantage of this method is to incorporate uncertainties into perspectives and makes explicit that there are many possible futures. The key limitation is that the scenarios are heavily dependent on the writers.
• Backcasting
A futures method in which a particular future scenario is identified in some detail. Its origins and lines of development are then carefully traced back into the present. Often contrasted with forecasting (Slaughter, 1996).
Other Interesting Methods Outside Informan
• Modelling
There are many types of models that can be built and used such as:
o Econometric models: this involves systems of linear multiple regression equations, each including several interdependent variables.
o Feedback models: Provide a means for accounting for the interactions that will connect technical, economic, market, societal, and economic factors as the future unfolds. In using this technique computer models are developed that mathematically specify the relationship between each of the relevant factors. For example advances in technology may result in improved products that may result in increased sales that may provide more funds for further advance in technology. The results of this technique are highly quantitative, but are often used to examine qualitative consequences of trends, events, or decisions. The technique is most commonly used in the formulation of high-level strategies or policy.
• Simulations And Games An attempt to take certain variables from “reality” in some area and create a computer model or game situation in which one can see how those variables might interact with each other over time. Computers or humans (as role players) or both can be involved. With computers, human can play “what if” games, where by making certain choices, they can then see the consequences (in terms of policy) that follow from those choices
• Brainstorming
A method of eliciting ideas without judgment or filtering. Often used in the early stages of futures workshops and in many other contexts. Involves encouraging wild and unconstrained suggestions and listing ideas as they emerge. (Slaughter, 1996).
• Relevance Tree
A way to map out the sequence of events, and in what order, that are necessary to get from where you are now to where you want to be as your end goal by somefuture date.
• Critical Technologies
Focused discussion by experts on new technologies, and prioritizing their importance to facilitate further discussion on their effects and what should be done at present to help with their developments.
• Cross-Impact Analysis
Cross-Impact matrices were developed in: “…recognition of the fact that forecasts of future events, when made in isolation from each other, fail to take their mutual effects into systematic consideration and thus lack a degree of refinement whose addition, it was felt, might well increase their reliability”. (Helmer, 1983). The technique is therefore used by Counter Punchers as a means of analyzing the future in the light of other possible futures. Cross impact analysis is a highly quantitative technique. It is used for the investigation of possible future events and their mutual impact on each other. The time horizon for the technique is extremely flexible but is dependent, in much the same way as Delphi technique, on the ability of experts to provide meaningful estimates of event occurrence probability.
• Morphology Analysis
This is a formal method for uncovering new product and process possibilities. In applying this technique, users first determine the essential functions of the product or process. Next, they list the different means by which each of these functions could be satisfied. Finally, they use the matrix to identify new, reasonable combinations of these means that could result in practical new product or processes. Results of the application of this technique are qualitative in nature. The technique can be used to identify non-obvious new opportunities for a company. IT can also be used to identify products and processes that competitors might be developing or considering.
• Content Analysis
Is founded on the concept that the relative importance of societal, political, commercial, and economic issues are reflected by the amount of media attention the issue receives. Thus, by measuring, over time, changes in such factors as column-inches in newspapers, time allocated on television, and, more recently, number of items on the Internet, forecasters can project the direction, nature, and rate of change. In the technical arena, this technique can, to some degree, be used to project advances in new technologies as well as growing market attraction. The results of use of this technique are often displayed in a quantitative format. However, they are typically used only for qualitative analysis.
• Patent Analysis
Is based on the presumption that increased interest in new technologies, together with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be reflected in an increased R&D activity, and that this, in turn, will be reflected by increased patent activity. Thus it is presumed that one can both identify new product technologies by analysing the pattern of patent application in appropriate fields. Results from the application are often presented in quantified terms; however, their use in decision- making is normally based on a qualitative evaluation.
• Visualisation
The individual act of creating a compelling image of some future process, possibility or event. Usually used to create positive inner states, attitudes etc. Has particular uses in healing and in recovery from illnesses such as cancer (Slaughter, 1996).
• Science Fiction
A possible story of what could happen in some future social or world situation. Based on a scenario of some kind (i.e.: a possible sequence of events that ‘could’ happen in the future) to which characters (with their own personalities, even representing different alien species in some cases) interact with that sequence of events over rime. Science fiction has replaces cowboy movies as an important genre of films today. Both dystopian and utopian science fiction stories are possible. Science fiction dies not claim to predict the future, but sometimes good scientists (who now their topic well) intuitively write about something in science fiction that later becomes a reality. The most famous case is Arthur C. Clark and the communications satellite, which first appeared in a science fiction story.
Improvements To Existing Futures Methods
As a result of the workshops on methodologies and the subsequent discussion at the first Informan conference in March 2000, a number of suggestions were made on improvements and areas of attention in the forecasting methods used in Foresight.
These are groups into 4 points:
• Increasing the range of inputs considered
• Making use of existing resources
• Looking for discontinuities in existing trends
• Building network of expertiseFurther details on these issues can be found in a report on ‘Manufacturing Foresight Methodologies’ which are the output from March 2000 Informan conference.
References
Helmer, O. (1983). Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research
Makridakis, S. and Wheelwright, S. (1989). Forecasting Methods For Management, 5 th Ed, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
McHale, J. and McHale, M.C. (1975). Futures Studies: An International Survey, New York: United Nations Institute for Training and Research
Nagel, R.N., and Wellington, J. (2000). Proceedings of the IMS Vision 2020 Forum, IMS International Slaughter, R.A. (1996). Knowledge Base Of Futures Studies, The Futures Study Centre, Australia. P.Assakul18/01/2003
Metodologi juga boleh dirujuk di LAMAN:
Kajian MIKRO Pilihanraya Kecil
dengan ini mempelawa mereka yang berminat untuk menjadi sebahagian dari kumpulan PARTICIPATORY RESEARCHER bolehlah mengemukakan permohonan secara terus dengan mengirimkan email ke muringwien@gmail.com bagi bersama-sama melakukan kajian mikro secara komprehensif berkenaan
PILIHANRAYA KECIL PARLIMEN DAN DEWAN UNDANGAN NEGERI
BUKIT GANTANG
BUKIT SELAMBAU
BATANG AI
Kajian ini akan berasaskan:
METODOLOGI Future Studies
KONSEP DAN SUBJEK ialah Kepercayaan Politik (Politic Perception) Dalam Pilihanraya Kecil bagi kawasan-kawasan tersebut.
RASIONAL ialah untuk mendapatkan sumber kuantitatif bandingan kualitatif dalam aliran pengundian secara konstruksi demografi kepercayaan politik di masadepan bagi kawasan-kawasan tersebut.
Maklumat lanjut berkenaan abstrak, bentuk dan kandungan kajian akan diberikan sebaik permohonan diterima.
PERHATIAN
Participatory Researcher adalah projek penyelidikan secara sukarela tanpa profit dan dana yang diperuntukkan.
ZENTRUM – Projek dan Renstra
Mahsul dari penyelidikan KEPERCAYAAN POLITIK DALAM PEMILIHAN UMNO 2008 maka ZENTRUM turut menerima kesan limpahan maklumat dan penghuraian, dan sebahagiannya telah menggaris bawahi designasi ZENTRUM secara keliru, kabur dan salah.
MAKLUMAT sebenar:
ZENTRUM adalah singkatan dari ZENTRUM FUTURE STUDIES MALAYSIA
iaitu sebuah unit penyelidikan komprehensif di peringkat mikro dan makro dalam pelbagai rencana strategi kajian atau EKOPOSIAL, dan unit ini adalah sebuah unit di dalam pengurusan SYARIKAT SIZILIUM MEDIA yang bertanggung jawab dalam kebersamaan membangunkan industri penyelidikan dan pembangunan FUTURE STUDIES, CULTURAL STUDIES dan MEDIA STUDIES berpusat di Malaysia.
ZENTRUM sama sekali bukan:
Institusi, fakulti, jabatan atau unit di dalam pengurusan UNIVERSITI baik di peringkat awam atau swasta di Malaysia, atau luar negara.
Semua data kajian hendaklah merujuk kepada:
ZENTRUM FUTURE STUDIES MALAYSIA (ZENTRUM)
atau mana-mana wakil dari ZENTRUM yang telah diberi pentauliahan dan pengiktirafan di peringkat pengurusan secara sah.
Unit Dokumentasi
ZENTRUM
16 Mac 2009
ZENTRUM – KAJIAN MIKRO (Micro Research)
Salam
(Edisi Bahasa Melayu)
Kajian MIKRO yang dijalankan oleh ZENTRUM FUTURE STUDIES MALAYSIA yang telah diterbitkan sebahagian PENEMUAN (evaluation) dan PEMUTUSAN (concentration) berkenaan dengan kasus kajian:
ANALISIS MIKRO KEPERCAYAAN POLITIK DALAM PEMILIHAN UMNO 2009
yang lengkap adalah di dalam proses mengemaskini (exaggeration) dari semasa ke semasa.
Pihak ZENTRUM akan memaklumkan secara rasmi melalui Jurnal EKOPOSIAL dari semasa ke semasa juga sebaik projek pengemaskinian selesai.
Makluman awal dengan adanya tambahan (micro additional valid respective respondent) dalam semua sektor analisis bentuk (form) dan kandungan (content) keputusan (result) kajian masih lagi seimbang dan sama.
Metodologi KAJIAN FUTURE STUDIES ialah:
Jumlah Responden Sahih (Valid Respective Respondent) / Perbandingan Subjek Kajian (Tokoh Yang Dibandingkan) = Peratusan lingkaran keputusan x 30 peratus tambahan anggaran relatif per sektor kajian (30 percent relative respective future per sector) mengikut skala Future Studies oleh Bauer, 1998.
Lazimnya skala ini akan mendapat keputusan yang tepat iaitu dalam lingkaran pemetaan keputusan (Validity Result Mapping) antara 88 peratus hingga ketepatan maksimum iaitu 98 peratus.
Memandangkan tanggung jawab kajian ini amat penting, dan begitu mendapat perhatian dari massa maka pihak ZENTRUM akan sentiasa memastikan aliran keputusan adalah sahih dan tepat, dan akan dikemaskini dari semasa ke semasa sehingga tarikh akhir kajian yang dijangkakan pada 20 Mac 2009
Tarasul oleh:
ZENTRUM
Kuala Lumpur
Bulan Kajian oleh ZENTRUM
dalam renstra mikro dan makro pertumbuhan kajian kuantitatif dan kualitatif peringkat nasional dan antarabangsa telah melancarkan beberapa projek kajian komprehensif bermula Januari 2009 sebagai suatu ikhtiar dalam membangunkan industri dokumentasi dan penyelidikan di negara ini.
ZENTRUM telah memulakan kajian peringkat mikro kontemporari iaitu:
1. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan pengundi bagi Pilihanraya Kecil P036 Kuala Terengganu
2. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan pengundi bagi Katastrofi Politik Perak
3. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan pengundi bagi Suku Pertama Tahun 2009 bagi Konflik Politik Nasional
4. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan pengundi bagi Pembangunan Politik Pluralisme Menjelang Krisis 2010
5. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan politik dalam Masyarakat Liberal Relatif di Malaysia bagi period 2010-2015
6. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan politik dalam PEMILIHAN UMNO 2009
7. Kajian kesan sumber informasi terhadap Krisis 2009 – Pendidikan, Tenaga Air dan Perumahan
8. Kajian pengaruh media baru dalam pembentukan nilai dan sistem hidup kontemporari di negeri-negeri Semenanjung
9. Kajian pembentukan sistem nilai Negara Masyarakat Sivil
10. Kajian lingkaran demografi kepercayaan pengundi bagi Pilihanraya Kecil Bukit Gantang, Bukit Selambau 2009
ZENTRUM juga telah memulakan kajian peringkat makro “future studies” iaitu:
1. Kajian krisis tenaga air menjelang 2010
2. Kajian perubahan paradigma ekonomi bagi tahun 2011 dengan kesan terhadap krisis sumber makanan dan tenaga
3. Kajian pengaruh dan kesan terhadap pembangunan identiti nasional dari perubahan kepercayaan media
4. Kajian pembangunan sistem pendidikan 2021
5. Kajian pengukuhan budaya dalam tantangan pasca globalisasi
Semua kajian ini sedang berlangsung, dan tentunya masih diperlukan petugas-petugas di peringkat “Pengutipan Responden” dan “Penganalisisan Data Sekunder”.
ZENTRUM – Tawarikh
secara tawarikhnya ditubuhkan sebagai sebuah projek dalam menjayakan kajian-kajian atau penyelidikan secara komprehensif di peringkat mikro dan makro secara berterusan berkenaan dengan isu-isu kesewaktuaan (contemporary) bagi membangunkan pemikiran di peringkat falsafah dan rencana strategi dalam kebangkitan isu-isu di peringkat krisis, konflik dan katastrofi yang dijangkakan terjadi di masa hadapan.
ZENTRUM secara projeknya dimulakan pada tahun 2002 dengan asas-asas sebagai unit penyelidikan sukarela di kalangan para sarjana, ilmuwan, pengkaji dan penyelidik yang bebas dengan menggunakan dana-dana sendiri atau mendapatkan sumber-sumber tajaan bagi penyelidikan secara individual atau berkumpulan, dengan kaedah penyelidikan bebas sebagai cara menemukan dan mendapatkan data atau statistik yang boleh diperbahaskan secara ilmiah dan sistematik baik di peringkat nasional atau antarabangsa.
ZENTRUM berkembang dari sebuah projek menjadi sebuah unit secara sukarela dengan gabungan penyelidik-penyelidik dalam satu kesepakatan dan kebersamaan untuk perkongsian data, maklumat dan proses-proses menjayakan penyelidikan secara terperinci sehingga membolehkan hasil mahsul kajian diperbincangkan dengan lebih ilmiah dan akademik di peringkat nasional dan antarabangsa.
Sebagai sebuah projek, ZENTRUM kemudian dibangunkan untuk menjadi sebuah unit atau biro penyelidikan bebas dengan maksud gabungan penyelidik-penyelidik tempatan dan antarabangsa yang mengendalikan urusan penyelidikan di bawah satu kesepakatan perkongsian data dan maklumat.
Bagi membolehkan pengurusan ZENTRUM dikendalikan secara lebih efektif dan dinamik maka pihak ZENTRUM akhirnya menempatkan ZENTRUM sebagai salah satu unit ‘non profit’ di bawah pengurusan Syarikat HF Two Media bagi membolehkan adanya usaha membantu pendapatan dana, yang boleh disumbangkan kepada ZENTRUM bagi membantu pihak ZENTRUM menjayakan projek-projek kajian yang diusahakan kerana ZENTRUM adalah sebuah unit yang tidak berkepentingan PROFIT sebaliknya gabungan penyelidik-penyelidik yang menjalankan kajian dengan menggunakan:
METODOLOGI
Kajian Mikro dan Makro
Kaedah Kualitatif mengatasi Kaedah Kuantitatif
Pendekatan Teoritikal / Falsafah FUTURE STUDIES
FUTURE STUDIES
adalah sebuah projek metodologi yang masih berkembang dengan pemerhatian terhadap isu-isu kompleks di peringkat CULTURAL STUDIES dan MEDIA STUDIES, iaitu dengan menguji, memeriksa, mencerakin, memerhati, menilai dan memutuskan dalam lingkaran;
ANALISIS KEPERCAYAAN atau ANALYSIS OF BELIEVENESS
yang tidak merujuk kepada target-target pemutusan secara pengundian (voting), pengesahan (calculative), dan ketepatan abadi (pure validity) sebaliknya merumuskan dalam sistem pengukuran yang bergerak dari projek FUTURE STUDIES iaitu:
Pemerhatian (Observation), Pengamatan (Appraisal), Penilaian (Evaluation), dan Pemutusan (Judgmentation) serta Pengukuhan (Developmentation) terhadap keinginan dan kemungkinan bagi merekacipta bentuk dan kandungan sistem ekoposial di masa depan.
ZENTRUM FUTURE STUDIES MALAYSIA adalah sebuah projek mengumpulkan dan menggabungkan para penyelidik di seluruh peringkat nasional dan antarabangsa dengan berfungsi sebagai PUSAT atau CENTRE pengumpulan dan pemprosesan data, maklumat dan sumber yang sekali gus menjadi ARKIB DATA / Data Research Archive yang boleh digunakan oleh semua pihak untuk membangunkan peradaban manusia masadepan.
ZENTRUM
